The Phillips Curve and Inflation

My slides for the SF Fed Symposium, “The Future of Inflation”:  While the reduced-form Phillips Curve appears near death, this can be explained by structural factors and the links between inflation and resource utilization are alive and well.

A lot of related research is reviewed, including reduced-form empirical work (Ball and Mazumder (2011)Blanchard (2016)), the literature on inflation and long-term unemployment (Ball and Mazumder (2014)Kiley (2015)), lack of participation as slack (Erceg and Levin (2014)), DSGE models (Del Negro, Giannoni, and Schorfheide (2015)Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Trabandt (2015)Chung, Herbst, and Kiley (2015)), and expectations (Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015)Kiley (2016)).

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